Publications

Below is the complete publication list. My best papers are indicated with 👍.

You can also find my articles on my Google Scholar profile.

Working papers

Rational Bubbles on Dividend-Paying Assets: A Comment on Tirole (1985)

Conditionally accepted at Econometrica, Last updated 2026/01 , with Ngoc-Sang Pham

Robust Asset-Liability Management

Last updated 2025/12 , with Tjeerd de Vries Slides

A Theory of Saving under Risk Preference Dynamics

Last updated 2025/11 , with Qingyin Ma and Xinxi Song

Land and Infinite Debt Rollover

Last updated 2025/09 , with Tomohiro Hirano

Optimal Savings with Preference for Wealth

Last updated 2025/09 , with Qingyin Ma

Rational Bubbles Attached to Real Assets

Last updated 2025/09 , with Tomohiro Hirano Slides

Technological Innovation and Bursting Bubbles

Last updated 2025/08 , with Tomohiro Hirano and Keiichi Kishi Slides

Housing Bubbles with Phase Transitions

Last updated 2025/05 , with Tomohiro Hirano Slides

Asset Prices with Overlapping Generations and Capital Accumulation: Tirole (1985) Revisited

Last updated 2025/01 , with Ngoc-Sang Pham

Equilibrium Selection in Pure Bubble Models by Dividend Injection

Last updated 2024/10 , with Tomohiro Hirano

The Effect of Reducible Markov Modulation on Tail Probabilities in Models of Random Growth

Last updated 2024/05 , with Brendan K. Beare

Leverage, Endogenous Unbalanced Growth, and Asset Price Bubbles

Last updated 2024/02 , with Tomohiro Hirano and Ryo Jinnai Slides

Linearity of Aggregate Production Functions

Last updated 2023/09 , with Christopher P. Chambers

Fixed-k Tail Regression: New Evidence on Tax and Wealth Inequality from Forbes 400

Last updated 2022/09 , with Ji Hyung Lee, Yuya Sasaki, and Yulong Wang

Capital and Labor Income Pareto Exponents in the United States, 1916–2019

Last updated 2022/06 , with Ji Hyung Lee, Yuya Sasaki, and Yulong Wang Slides

Zipf's Law: A Microfoundation

Last updated 2017/05 Slides

Securitization and Leverage in General Equilibrium

Last updated 2015/07 Slides

Refereed research articles

Land Bubbles Despite Non-Vanishing Rents

Economics Letters, 2025 WP version History

Optimal Taxation and the Domar-Musgrave Effect

Economic Inquiry, 2025 , with Brendan K. Beare WP version Code History

Pareto's Limits: Improving Inequality Estimates in America, 1917 to 1965

Cliometrica, 2025 , with Vincent Geloso WP version History

👍Unbalanced Growth and Land Overvaluation

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2025 , with Tomohiro Hirano WP version Slides Code History

Toward Bubble Clarity

Econ Journal Watch, 2025 , with Tomohiro Hirano WP version History

Incentivizing Hidden Types in Secretary Problem

International Journal of Game Theory, 2025 , with Longjian Li WP version Slides Code History

👍Bubble Necessity Theorem

Journal of Political Economy, 2025 , with Tomohiro Hirano WP version Slides History

Unbounded Markov Dynamic Programming with Weighted Supremum Norm Perov Contractions

Economic Theory Bulletin, 2024 WP version History

Recent Advances on Uniqueness of Competitive Equilibrium

Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2024 , with Kieran James Walsh WP version History

On Equilibrium Determinacy in Overlapping Generations Models with Money

Economics Letters, 2024 , with Tomohiro Hirano WP version History

👍Bubble Economics

Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2024 , with Tomohiro Hirano WP version History

Tuning Parameter-Free Nonparametric Density Estimation from Tabulated Summary Data

Journal of Econometrics, 2024 , with Ji Hyung Lee, Yuya Sasaki, and Yulong Wang WP version Code History

Robust Comparative Statics for the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution

Theoretical Economics, 2023 , with Joel P. Flynn and Lawrence D. W. Schmidt WP version Slides History

👍Pareto Extrapolation: An Analytical Framework for Studying Tail Inequality

Quantitative Economics, 2023 , with Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant WP version Slides Code History

Capital and Labor Income Pareto Exponents across Time and Space

Review of Income and Wealth, 2022 , with Tjeerd de Vries WP version Code History

👍Optimal Epidemic Control in Equilibrium with Imperfect Testing and Enforcement

Journal of Economic Theory, 2022 , with Thomas Phelan WP version Slides Code History

Tail Behavior of Stopped Lévy Processes with Markov Modulation

Econometric Theory, 2022 , with Brendan K. Beare and Won-Ki Seo WP version History Corrigendum

👍Determination of Pareto Exponents in Economic Models Driven by Markov Multiplicative Processes

Econometrica, 2022 , with Brendan K. Beare WP version Slides History

Unbounded Dynamic Programming via the Q-Transform

Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2022 , with Qingyin Ma and John Stachurski WP version History

Asymptotic Linearity of Consumption Functions and Computational Efficiency

Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2022 , with Qingyin Ma WP version Code History

Perov's Contraction Principle and Dynamic Programming with Stochastic Discounting

Operations Research Letters, 2021 WP version History

👍Necessity of Hyperbolic Absolute Risk Aversion for the Concavity of Consumption Functions

Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2021 WP version History

Data-based Automatic Discretization of Nonparametric Distributions

Computational Economics, 2021 WP version Code History

👍A Theory of the Saving Rate of the Rich

Journal of Economic Theory, 2021 , with Qingyin Ma WP version Slides Code History

The Effect of Social Distancing on the Reach of an Epidemic in Social Networks

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, 2021 , with Gregory Gutin, Tomohiro Hirano, Sung-Ha Hwang, and Philip R. Neary WP version Code History

Efficient Minimum Distance Estimation of Pareto Exponent from Top Income Shares

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2021 , with Yulong Wang WP version Code History

👍On the Emergence of a Power Law in the Distribution of COVID-19 Cases

Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 2020 , with Brendan K. Beare WP version Code History

Is Gibrat's 'Economic Inequality' Lognormal?

Empirical Economics, 2020 , with Sherzod Akhundjanov Code History

👍The Equity Premium and the One Percent

Review of Financial Studies, 2020 , with Kieran James Walsh WP version Slides History

The Income Fluctuation Problem and the Evolution of Wealth

Journal of Economic Theory, 2020 , with Qingyin Ma and John Stachurski WP version Code History

Publications, Citations, Position, and Compensation of Economics Professors

Econ Journal Watch, 2019 , with Yifei Lyu Code History

👍An Impossibility Theorem for Wealth in Heterogeneous-agent Models with Limited Heterogeneity

Journal of Economic Theory, 2019 , with John Stachurski WP version Slides History Corrigendum

Wealth Distribution with Random Discount Factors

Journal of Monetary Economics, 2019 WP version Code History

Securitized Markets, International Capital Flows, and Global Welfare

Journal of Financial Economics, 2019 , with Gregory Phelan WP version Slides Code History

Huggett Economies with Multiple Stationary Equilibria

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2017 Code History

Growth Effects of Annuities and Government Transfers in Perpetual Youth Models

Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2017 , with Yoshiyuki Miyoshi Code History

A Note on the Size Distribution of Consumption: More Double Pareto than Lognormal

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2017 WP version Code History

Fat Tails and Spurious Estimation of Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2017 , with Kieran James Walsh WP version Code History

👍Discretizing Nonlinear, Non-Gaussian Markov Processes with Exact Conditional Moments

Quantitative Economics, 2017 , with Leland E. Farmer WP version Slides Code History

Edgeworth Box Economies with Multiple Equilibria

Economic Theory Bulletin, 2017 , with Kieran James Walsh WP version Code History

Asset Prices and Efficiency in a Krebs Economy

Review of Economic Dynamics, 2015 WP version History

👍The Double Power Law in Consumption and Implications for Testing Euler Equations

Journal of Political Economy, 2015 , with Kieran James Walsh WP version Slides Code History

Discretizing Distributions with Exact Moments: Error Estimate and Convergence Analysis

SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis, 2015 , with Ken'ichiro Tanaka WP version Slides History

Bayesian General Equilibrium

Economic Theory, 2015 Slides History

Incomplete Market Dynamics and Cross-Sectional Distributions

Journal of Economic Theory, 2014 WP version Slides History

Radii of the Inscribed and Escribed Spheres of a Simplex

International Journal of Geometry, 2014 History

Learning Curve for Paramedic Endotracheal Intubation and Complications

International Journal of Emergency Medicine, 2013 , with Junko Toda and Johji Arakawa History

Discrete Approximations of Continuous Distributions by Maximum Entropy

Economics Letters, 2013 , with Ken'ichiro Tanaka History

The Double Power Law in Income Distribution: Explanations and Evidence

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2012 History

The Impact of Media Reports on the 2008 Outbreak of Hydrogen Sulfide Suicides in Japan

International Journal of Psychiatry in Medicine, 2012 , with Mitsuhiro Nakamura, Hideo Yasunaga, Toru Sugihara, and Tomoaki Imamura History

Income Dynamics with a Stationary Double Pareto Distribution

Physical Review E, 2011 History

Operator Reverse Monotonicity of the Inverse

American Mathematical Monthly, 2011 History

Existence of a Statistical Equilibrium for an Economy with Endogenous Offer Sets

Economic Theory, 2010 History

Other publications

Below is a list of other publications including books, conference proceedings, corrigenda, etc.

Corrigendum to 'An Impossibility Theorem for Wealth in Heterogeneous-agent Models with Limited Heterogeneity' [Journal of Economic Theory 182 (2019) 1–24]

Journal of Economic Theory, 2020 , with John Stachurski

Alexis Akira Toda

Publications

Working papers

Refereed research articles

Other publications